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- 网上买彩票靠谱吗精选玄机 - biao166.cn

2018-06-20 03:57 来源:凤凰平台网址zc9664.com

   - 网上买彩票靠谱吗精选玄机 - biao166.cn

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  天天好彩 二四六天天好彩资料 天天好彩

   - 网上买彩票靠谱吗精选玄机 - biao166.cn

 
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贸易战里的龙虎斗,是什么让美国坐不住了!

2018-06-20  天侠论坛


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- 网上买彩票靠谱吗精选玄机 - biao166.cn

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几天,朋友圈几乎被中美贸易战刷爆了。


大战在即,人心惶惶,资本躁动,尤其是全球股市已经开始全速进入暴跌模式,说明这次和之前截然不同,大家开始玩真的了。


很多人都说,一觉醒来变了天,老特发神经突然对中国发动贸易战。试问大国之战关系纵横身系万千,有那么随便吗?


其实这个事情在3月初就有了苗头。就是前段时间因发射自制火箭而名噪一时的硅谷钢铁侠马斯克(特拉斯CEO)想在上海办厂发展汽车业务,但是受到了所谓的“不公平对待(美国汽车进口中国关税高达25%,而中国汽车进口美国关税仅为2.5%;中国不允许美国汽车厂商持有超过50%的股权,但美国却有5个中资100%控股的电动汽车公司)


受了委屈的马斯克,借此炒作中国关于汽车市场霸王条约,连发数条推特疯狂艾特特朗普,言称被欺负了要讨回公道。


而蓄谋已久的特朗普感觉终于等来了机会,一拍大腿,第二天就当着所有人面朗读了“马斯克理论”。在短暂几日的密谋后,大笔一挥,签署了对中国发动经济制裁总统备忘录。


依据“301调查”结果,将对从中国进口的商品大规模征收关税,并限制中国企业对美投资并购,还准备对进口自中国的高达600亿美元产品加征新的关税。


不单如此,特朗普还准备拉上欧盟和日韩,联手对中国发动经济制裁,开出的条件竟然是对合伙人免征关税。看到这个条件时,子木感到特别好笑。因为这就好比老大带着小弟出门和别人打架,结果大家都身负重伤了,而老大对小弟却说,“回去吧,医疗费就别想了,以后对你少收点儿钱得了”。



2

为什么一定要发动贸易战



按照正常的经济思维来讲,只要贸易战双方存在深度贸易合作,那么战争的结局必然两败俱伤,无一幸免。


那么既然是经济上的两败俱伤,为什么特朗普一定要发动贸易战呢?而且是已经蓄谋已久的(事实上2017年8月美国就已经对中国启动了“301调查”)。


我认为有二。


其一是14亿勤劳聪明的中国人,在正确的发展方向上不断前进,将来GDP会达到美国的2倍多,让美国人感到恐惧。


中国的崛起必然要触动美国欧洲这些既得利益者的蛋糕。对于目前的形势来讲,美国一直是全球老大,中国稳坐第二的宝座,且有反超势头。


那么有人问美国可以做老二吗?我可以明确的告诉你,美国做老二是要亡国的。因为美国是地球上资产泡沫最大的国家,是靠生产美元过活的。一旦经济地位下滑,天量资本撤离,基础工业的短缺会让美国日渐衰落至死亡。


而中国本来是想闷声发大财,默默无闻玩弯道超车,等城市化拉动内需弥补出国贸易受阻,就有足够的力量去反制美国。但是美国能坐以待毙吗?


其二是特朗普的政治目的。


特朗普上台本身就是一个奇迹,按照目前美国的情况来讲,他只是美国的半个总统,一半美国人并不承认他的位置。而总统竞选的时候特朗普就曾以制造业回流作为竞选口号,赢得了绝大多数大工厂主的支持,他们成为了支持特朗普的主力军。


因为贸易战一旦打响,中美双方一定会根据自己的产业结构构建关税壁垒,那么中国的钢铝行业以及其他制造业产品因为极高关税无法流入美国,导致美国制造业产品供不应求,从而价格大涨,刺激资本倾注,制造业崛起,工人失业率下降,工资提高,特朗普的选民受益。


所以这样看来,因贸易战而带来的经济两败俱伤就显得无足轻重了,因为它满足了特朗普对巩固政权的精准需求。那么从年前特朗普的加息降税到现在发动贸易战争的一连串举动,背后的脉络就显得十分清晰了。


但是最后无论出于何种目的,中国首要解决的问题是如何面对这场战争。


关注这个事情的人想必已经知道了答案,就是中方直接霸气反击,将对美国进行30亿美元的反制裁措施,宣布对美30亿美元的产品加征关税,含128项产品列表,直接开启了贸易战的对抗模式。


但是未来如何呢?中国是否能打赢这场战争?为什么才出码30亿?


为了解答这些问题,帮大家建立系统的判断力。子木还需要带大家进入贸易战争的宏观历史背景,借历史的真相了解这件事情的来龙去脉,所有问题便会引刃而解。



3

美国的不公平自由贸易



时间回到20世纪70年代,由于多种原因,新自由主义作为经济实践在人类历史上逐步兴盛,几乎成了人类唯一有效的经济体制。


这时候的美国不仅积极实践新自由主义,而且充分利用其庞大的国际干预能力,大力向其他国家推行这种经济体制,利用IMF、世界银行和WTO干预其他国家的经济体制和经济政策。


而新自由主义就是主张大市场、小政府。它认为只有市场才能有效地配置资源,政府是没有资格管制的。


在新自由主义风靡的时期,美国理想的世界模型是一个金融贸易自由开放的世界体系,资本货物要素能在国际自由流动。到这里大家应该明白了,这就是美国一直倡导的经济全球化。


在这个体系里,国际分工有一个巨大的特点,那就是发展中国家向美国出口资源、货物和服务,而美国则向世界各国出口美元、金融产品和不影响美国安全和竞争力的低技术。这是美国为霸权的长期存在而设计的经济基础。


因为美国对中国巨大的经济潜力心存顾虑,所以在这个体系中,美国一开始就为中国设计了一个“完美无缺”的位置。


1、使中国经济依赖美国,至少是依赖美国市场。

2、必须使中国经济走上低技术水平扩张的道路。

3、必须在金融上控制中国。


但是对于当时的中国,无论是经济地位还是影响力在全世界上都处于低端国家行列。于是参与全球化分工,加入WTO便成为了中国经济发展的唯一出路。


在入世的时候,中国被迫签署不平等文件,承诺开放包括银行、金融等所有市场换取美国的低端市场和低水平技术。每次读到有关文件,子木都不得不扼腕叹息。这个文件,立下了撤除中国经济保护的一个时间表。


其实这时候中国非常明智的一点就是坚持了汽车市场的保护原则,而付出的代价就是其他产业的让利。所以有时候听大家抱怨说进口的汽车多么多么好,抱怨中国一直对汽车进口坚守不理智的高关税原则。


那么我现在告诉你。作为大宗耐用消费品的汽车市场,中国排名全球第一,而汽车市场带来的经济效益是天量资金,无法预估。如果早期完全开放汽车市场,那么势必会遭受国外资本侵略压制,这对于中国汽车制造业是灭顶之灾。


那么未来中国将没有本土汽车企业,而汽车市场带来的经济效益将会源源不断地向国外输送,结果可想而知。那么现在,马斯克想打开中国市场赚钱,凭什么?而且前段时间,美国政府对中国华为做了什么,他心里应该也清楚吧!


所以美国30年的贸易历史证明,其实行自由贸易政策的底线,是确保美国在高科技和其他关键产业上的垄断地位。套用尼克松的话:“美国必须是第一,美国必须不逊于任何人”。美国主导的自由贸易是不对称的自由贸易。


而历史上,美国进行不对称自由贸易的最大受害者就是日本。这也是为什么这几天贸易战的风波引发了全球股市下跌,日本股市是最惨烈的,用闻风丧胆形容不为过。


下面子木带大家看看美国那些年对日本做了什么…



4

贸易战的受害者



第一次日美贸易战大概从上世纪六十年代开始。日美两国为纺织纤维产业的贸易摩擦首次交手。当时日本的态度非常强硬,不但严词拒绝了美国对于限制日本出口量的要求,而且还通过决议反对美国干涉日本的贸易政策。


结果在2018-06-20,美国尼克松政府突然宣布对一切外国进口商品征收10%的附加税,并停止把美元自由兑换成美金。布雷顿森林体系的瓦解加上纺织行业的出口受挫,让日本经济遭受严重冲击。


两个月后不堪重负的日本妥协了,接受了美国提出的所有要求,并以政府赔偿方式弥补了日本纺织业的损失。


然后是上世纪八十年代。日本经济实力在全球都是首屈一指的,强劲的出口,让日本经济遥遥领先于其他国家,并对美国有着巨大的贸易顺差。


于是美国开始坐不住了,开始对日本高压式谈判。日本害怕之前的贸易战重蹈覆辙,被迫签署了广场协议。之后的一年,日元兑美元升值了40%。


但是美国并没有善罢甘休,再次挥起贸易镰刀,要求日本开放市场,扩大内需,采取积极的财政和金融政策。


结果大家就应该就知道了,这次贸易战帮助日本吹起了诺大的资产泡沫,为93年的金融危机埋下了伏笔,让日本失去了整整20年。


1992年克林顿上台,美国进入民主党时代。


日本政府本以为鼓吹自由贸易的民主党能够少一些贸易保护的套路,多一些互利互惠的真诚。然而克林顿对日本说的第一句话就是。


冷战期间的美日伙伴关系预警过时,经济贸易问题是美国最为关心的事项,美国对日本的贸易逆差问题极为忧虑,日本必须对此采取更加有效的对策。


此时的美国已经形成了一套对付日本行之有效的“官民协同贸易战体系”——美国的企业和工会向国会陈情,国会提出带有贸易保护色彩的法案,白宫和USTR则立刻拿着法案和301条款的威胁,逼迫日本在贸易谈判中就范。


终于在95年的时候,美日因汽车行业又产生了贸易摩擦。当时日本车在美国的比例已经非常高,《时代杂志》曾感慨,“美国路上每五辆车就有一辆来自日本,可日本路上一百辆车都没有一辆来自美国”。


美国对此表示非常生气,于是照搬之前的套路,再次威胁日本要启动超级“301条款”,但这次并没有奏效。


日本在接受到警告后,花了一晚上的时间回忆了自己屈辱的历史,越想越气,实在忍无可忍,这时候WTO刚刚开始生效。


于是抱着试一试的态度向WTO提起了诉讼,状告美国的单边主义制裁行为。


最终,在美国发动制裁期限只剩一天的时候,美日达成了和解,美方撤回了制裁性的高关税,而日方也撤销了向WTO的申诉。



5

贸易战的影响与应对



相信大家读完以上的历史后,刷新了对这两个国度的认知。而子木用这么大的篇幅来陈述历史主要想告诉大家几件事:


1、美国对外贸易战略就是流氓式的得寸进尺,你让他一步,他得进一尺,所以“决不让步”是中国最正确的选择,一旦让步,就不单是600亿的罚单,6000亿也是小数目。


2、按照美国对日本的贸易战的历史,资本利益驱动已经不能用人性来解释,如果没有WTO生效,美国会用经济制裁的方式把日本踩在脚底直至毁灭,对盟国如此,况且敌国?所以贸易战打响,不要心存幻想企图中国式和平,而是要勇敢应战。这场战争是美国拉倒中国的最后机会,也是中国跃迁为世界第一的最后阻碍。


3.日本之所以唯命是从,不敢忤逆,长期被美国无理压制,是因为日本在军事安全领域对美国及其依赖——商业谈判中最可怕的,就是一方有软肋一方无节操。而这个条件在中国不具备,中国自开国以来,在民族崛起的过程中忍辱负重默默耕耘,美国即使在前期运用多种恶劣手段强势压制都难以抵挡中国的崛起的步伐。所以中国无须惧怕。


这几天很多人问子木如果贸易战打响,中国的经济形势将会发生怎样的变化?下面子木帮大家推演一下。


首先战争一旦打响,中美两国的产业结构会发生巨大改变。首先中国会对美国关闭日用商品以其他基础工业用品的输送管道,美国普通民众的生活成本骤然上升。虽然2018年,越南、印度、孟加拉、东南亚等国家制造业兴起,但是目前还没有达到可以取代中国的地步。


同时,由于中国人力成本高,而美国大降本土企业税率,大量开采本国石油天然气,提供廉价能源,降低生产成本,大量制造业会回流美国。与此同时,中国的制造业也会加速流失。


中国制造业流失海外,会使得中国工人下岗,经济衰退。所以中国只能加速推动城市化建设,拉动内需,让制造业自产自销,而这个过程又是漫长的。


所以美国对中国开战,仅靠一家之力仅能重创中国经济,但美国自身也会遭受损失。所以美国一直想拉上欧盟和日韩一起发动联合制裁,一旦制裁中国,那就是真的扼杀。


而面对如此形势,中国也一直在积极应战。


例如中国开启了一带一路,大规模的投资基础建设,扩大市场,更是拉拢贸易伙伴。让发展中国家获得大量帮助和援助从而站在我们这边。


而为什么美国宣布对中国600亿商品征收关税,中国只宣布对美国30亿商品征收关税呢?


首先是因为中美经济关系不对等。说实话,中国经济相对美国还是弱,依附性还是强一点,真开启贸易战,是没办法等量的互相伤害的,只能说你伤我1000,我伤你300,这已经很不错了。


这次宣布的30亿商品,只是一个警告,表达中国不害怕贸易战,有骨气。同时留底牌,比如美国仅仅大豆去年向中国出口就有139亿美金,大豆向来是农业州最重要的出口产品,这是中国的底牌之一。如果中国把底牌亮出,就直接会刺痛美国农场主的利益,而这部分人也是特朗普的票仓。


这一波还没掀开的原因是还没到彻底撕破脸的时候,如果特朗普进一步扩大贸易战范围,中国还有余力继续跟进,区区600亿,中国的确有能力第一轮就宣布对美国600亿进口商品等量制裁,但是如果这么做了,后续就没有什么牌了,那就只能干看着特朗普在政治上纵横捭阖了。


所以,这就是我国今天直接硬怼美国霸权,寸步不让,但是惩罚性商品金额只有30亿美金的缘由,这种做法在政治上是完全正确的,而且给自己留有的余地和底牌颇大,特朗普若是再进一步,我国必然也再进一步,这是特朗普完全预计的到的结果,这样就会让特朗普很难受了,如果征收惩罚性关税没有获得想要的政治成果,或者反而在政治利益上面得到了损害,那么特朗普显然就不会再继续扩大贸易战了。


最后,让我想起了大军师司马懿。司马懿为什么能战胜诸葛亮,能战胜曹家三代呢?


是因为命长!


中国拥有五千年历史,是拥有14亿勤劳聪明中国人的泱泱大国。


那么对于美国的贸易战,又何惧哉?



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